ENVM3115 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Carbon Tax, Denialism, Free Market
1 Jun 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
Stakeholder Attitudes and Perceptions
Why is climate change so difficult to address? How does the message get communicated?
Why is climate change so difficult to address?
• Big complex wicked problem
• Global issue
• Uncertain
• Facts (lots and lots of facts)
• Fear-based
• Expensive solutions
• Criticism of present lifestyles and aspirations
• Conflicts with views, values and beliefs
Mental models
• A mental model is our personal process for thinking about how something works
• Based on our current knowledge, our beliefs and past experiences and our personal
intuition
• It can be a filter through which we sort the new information that we accept or reject
• Mental models are not static, and we can choose to correct, adjust and transform our
own, or influence the choices of others
Rainforest
Terrifying jungle full of leeches, snakes, poisonous spiders
Hotspot of unique biodiversity
Carbon sink
Home
Useless trees occupying potential cropland
Source of timber
Internal Influence: Evolutionary Psychology
• Self-interest
• Status within one’s group
• Imitation – conformity with others’ behaviour
• Short-termism
• Risk vividness
Internal influence: Confirmation bias
• Confirmation bias is the tendency for people to look for information that is consistent
with what we already think, want or feel
• It leads us to avoid, dismiss or forget information that would require us to change our
view
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Internal influence: The worry threshold
• Finite pool of worry – limited capacity to worry
• Worrying about near-term treats rather than long-term threats
• Worries driven by the emotions are hard to maintain
• ‘Emotional numbing’ sets in after repeated exposure to emotionally draining
situations
• Overuse of emotional appeal
Internal influence: Risk
• Risk is a feeling, not a number
• Spectacular, rare risks cause greater concern than common, familiar risks
• Personified risks cause greater concern than abstract, anonymous risks
• Risk you cannot control cause greater concern than those you can control
• Risks that are imposed cause greater concern than those you choose
Internal influence: Single action bias
• Single action bias is the observed tendency for us to simplify our decision-making in
uncertain and risky situations, take one action and rely on having taken one action
even though it may be only partially effective, and not be the best action
• The feeling of having done something is reassuring and reduces the compulsion to
take further action
Internal influence: Tragedy of the Commons
• The central idea is the tension between the good of the individual and the common
good when exploiting a resource that is owned and managed by everyone in general
and nobody in particular
• The short-term incremental benefit to the farmer of adding each extra cow to the
village common (shared pasture) is economically rational even if the pasture is over-
grazed, because the cost of damaging the pasture is in the future and will be shared by
everyone
• With this approach, someone wins in the short-term but in the long term everyone
loses
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Internal influence: Inferring vs rationalising
• What we usually do is arrive at a conclusion independently of conscious reasoning
and then, and only if required, search for reasons as to why we might be right.
• The first process, drawing a conclusion from evidence or facts, is called inferring; the
second process, searching for reasons as to why we might believe something to be
true, is called rationalising.
• “We tend to prefer conclusions that fit our existing world-view, and that don’t require
us to change a pleasant and familiar narrative. We are also more inclined to accept
these conclusions, intuitively leaping to them when they are presented, and to offer
resistance to conclusions that require us to change or seriously examine existing
beliefs
Internal influence: Acceptability of information
• Analytic processing (thinking things through – facts and statistics) vs experiential
processing (emotions and instincts – desires, fears and associations of thoughts and
feelings)
• Understandability – jargon, acronyms and technical terms vs plain language,
metaphor and narrative
• Establishing salience, relevance, authority and legitimacy
• Source/transmitter credibility – who we trust and why
Internal influence: Uncertainty
• Predictability makes us feel safer and more secure, whereas uncertainty can lead to
anxiety
• Disconnect between a piece of information and how we could/should respond
External influence: Science
The scientific method
• What is science vs not science - testability?
• Role of scepticism in science http://www.cyberalert.com/email2/scientificmethod-
chart.jpg Post-normal science – facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and
decisions urgent
External influence: Economics
• Valuation frameworks - how things are valued, costs & benefits
• Externalities – private vs public good
• Future discounting – higher relative weight given to consequences now as compared
with those in the future
• Uncertainty, risk and precaution
• Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change: spend 1% of annual global GDP
now to save 5 – 20% of annual global GDP later
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Why is climate change so difficult to address: big complex wicked problem, global issue, uncertain, facts (lots and lots of facts, fear-based, expensive solutions, criticism of present lifestyles and aspirations, conflicts with views, values and beliefs. Mental models: a mental model is our personal process for thinking about how something works, based on our current knowledge, our beliefs and past experiences and our personal intuition. Terrifying jungle full of leeches, snakes, poisonous spiders. Internal influence: evolutionary psychology: self-interest, status within one"s group, short-termism, risk vividness. Internal influence: confirmation bias: confirmation bias is the tendency for people to look for information that is consistent with what we already think, want or feel. It leads us to avoid, dismiss or forget information that would require us to change our view. Internal influence: the worry threshold: finite pool of worry limited capacity to worry, worrying about near-term treats rather than long-term threats, worries driven by the emotions are hard to maintain.
