UNIB10007 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Exponential Growth, Joseph Tainter
16 May 2018
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TOPIC 7: SCIENCE + THE ADAPTIVE SOCIETY
• Wolfram: A New Kind of Science, finite set of rules, dependent upon neighbours – complexity ubiquitous
in nature
• It takes energy to create order, without constant input of energy = more disorder
• Disorder more common because more likely
• Earth receives low entropy energy (sun) + radiates high entropy energy in form of heat
Dissipative (Open) Systems: open systems which is formed as a result of interactions (inputs + outputs) within
an environment
o Characteristics: open system (energy goes in + out),
not in equilibrium, non-linear behaviour
o Structure only comes about when pushed beyond
equilibrium (thresholds)
o Subject to abrupt changes
Miracles of Dissipative Systems
• Can spontaneously generate regions of complex order out of
chaos by dissipating entropy
• Fluctuations below threshold cancel each other out
• Fluctuations above threshold drive structures into stable state or
regime
o Abrupt changes aren’t a bad thing
Economy as a Dissipative System
• Characteristics:
o Self-organising system
o Not a closed system (requires ready supply of low-cost energy + externalities)
o Far from equilibrium (dynamic system that moves between regimes)
o Non-linear behaviour (recessions, market collapses)
• Primary source of energy flows to the economy comes from leveraging of human labour with supplemental
energy products (animal labour, fossil fuels, electricity + technology)
• Productivity: only occurs when quantity of supplemental energy supplies rise enough for human labour to
become more productive
o Results in growing wages, forcing tax payments higher
o Consumers have more resources available to buy goods + services = growing economy
• Economy: depends on how energy is moved around
TOPIC 8: LIMITS TO GROWTH
• Economy built around: presumption growth will occur, exchange of goods + services, human productivity
will increase
o Negative feedbacks: price mechanism – things kept at equilibrium
o Positive feedbacks: compound interest (exponential growth, not linear) – things moved from
equilibrium
• Economy: goes through states of booms + busts
• Threshold: seen as a hard limit to changes between systems
• Energy flows can be disrupted by: low wages or unemployment, prices below cost of production, fall tax
revenue, repletion, falling profitability
o Economy relies on getting cheap energy into production of goods + services
Debt
• Debt: way of managing energy flow, takes promise of future growth to pay for things now, ‘stealing from
the future’
o Essential part of positive feedbacks loops that are driving economy
