ECON10003 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Output Gap, Opec, Potential Output

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Inflation is slow to adjust, due to inflation inertia. I(cid:374)flatio(cid:374) i(cid:374)ertia suggests toda(cid:455)"s i(cid:374)flatio(cid:374) predicts future inflation. If inflation is high, expected high cost increase in the future = this creates high inflation in the future. If inflation inertia was the main factor determining inflation, we could represent inflation behaviour as follows. Output gaps and inflation: when output equals potential output. Inflation then determined by expectations: when output above potential output, sales exceed normal level of output, they will start to increase prices to reduce demand. Inflation begins to accelerate above beyond expected inflation: when output below potential output, sales are less than normal level of output, they will start to reduce prices to increase demand. Inflation begins to decelerate below expected: the above argument suggests the following description of inflation behaviour. =(cid:1870)(cid:1866)(cid:1856)(cid:1867)(cid:1865) (cid:1871) (cid:1867)(cid:1855)(cid:1863: here, is a description of how responsive inflation is to deviations in the output gap from zero.

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